Why most fantasy TEs are a coin flip

Every fantasy season plays out the same way at TE. Three or four guys are locked in. Then there's a giant chasm. Then twenty interchangeable names take turns booming and busting. Drafting outside the elite tier feels like a coin flip.

It is.

There are really two TE positions

We looked at every TE-season for 16 years and the data splits into two clean groups:

1. Receiving TEs — run routes most snaps. Think McBride, Bowers, Kelce.
2. In-line TEs — block more than they run routes. Most TEs.

The split is bimodal — there isn't a real middle ground.

How wild are the year-to-year swings?

Higher bar = more unpredictable from one season to the next. We measured this for every position and archetype in the data.

In-line TEs are the most volatile fantasy starters in football. Receiving TEs are about as stable as alpha WRs.

What to do about it

1. Reach for the elite receiving TEs. McBride, Bowers, Kelce — pay the cost. The risk you'd take going TE later is concentrated in the in-line wasteland.
2. Never reach for an in-line TE. Late-round in-line projections aren't reliable. Cycle waivers instead.
3. The 18% target share line. Above 18% last year = receiving TE = trustworthy. Below = in-line = avoid.